The Prime Factor

Guns and Nuance Prod Iraqi Political Process

2006-04-01T12:52:00.000-08:00

When Iraqi Special Forces, backed by US advisors, raided a Shiite Office Complex in the Adhamiyah neighborhood of northeast Baghdad a few days ago, the Iraqi political process received a much needed jump start. The operation resulted in the killing and capturing of over three dozen Shiites thought to be of the Mahdi Army at the location of a significant arms cache and a hostage thought to be Sunni.

Of the many messages, the first was most bold: Neither Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari nor his cabinet with Shiite ties were told in advance of this raid. The word to Mr. Jaafari, whose political loyalties lie with firebrand Cleric Moktada al-Sadr, is two pronged. The United States will act to clean up sectarian violence if the Iraqi Government doesn’t, and the Iraqi Army is more loyal to the United States than it is to the Jaafari Government.

As Shiite politicians expressed outrage over the “Mosque” raid, calling the meetings there apolitical , the Bush administration was busy sending messages of its own to the Shiites. Rumors abounded last weekend that President Bush declared Jaafari had to go as Prime Minister. Though the White House later denied Mr. Bush had taken a stand on this matter, this backdoor message sent on the heels of the “Mosque” raid shook Shiite politics to the core.

While the United States is blamed for meddling in Iraqi politics, it is the Kurds, Sunnis and Secular Shiites who reject Jaafari for Prime Minister. These groups of elected legislators form 140 of 275 members of the new Parliament--a majority. No negotiations on a Unity Government are possible with a Prime Minister chosen and supported by al-Sadr, leader of the Mahdi Army. A fact central to democracy in Iraq is the United States did not expend blood and treasure in Iraq for a thirty year old man like al-Sadr to become a political king maker with only thirty seats in Parliament backing him.

In a rare instance, Ayatollah Sistani made a political statement through an aide by leaving a letter from Mr. Bush un-translated and unread. The message is said to thank the Ayatollah for urging calm when the Askariya Mosque in Samara was blown up. The other more important message is said to be Mr. Bush’s preference for anyone but Jaafari for Prime Minister. Sistiani’s aide lashed out at American interference in Shiite politics as the pretext for the Ayatollah not acknowledging the letter. Yet the Ayatollah had a meeting with al-Sadr later in the week . No comments were released after this gathering of religious leaders.

Negotiations will continue on the Shiite side to either break the deadlock or continue it. One thing is for certain: The Coalition has demonstrated it will do whatever is necessary with the Iraqi Army to ensure the investment in blood and treasure is not lost over a political deadlock held up by one firebrand cleric.

On the immediate upside, Jill Carroll was freed on Thursday after three months of what she characterized as “falling off a cliff.” Upon her release, she was dropped with a Sunni political group, the Iraqi Islamic Party, where she was interviewed for Iraqi television. The Iraqi Army raid freed a bound and tortured hostage thought to be Sunni. One can assume Carroll’s release is quid-pro-quo, as is the case in relations between the United States and Sunnis. The U.S. gained some needed credibility on the Sunni Street from this operation.

Evidence points to a unified political and military strategy by the United States in efforts to jump start a stalled process. The intricate tapestry of last week’s two prong assault on al-Sadr’s political underpinnings, including ignoring the present government in a military decision, could only be approved by the National Security Council with ultimate approval by President Bush. This move to dislodge the political process is as bold and nuanced as any strategy yet seen in Iraq. Much hinges on its success.

With United States troop withdrawals possibly to begin this summer, a great deal hinges on the benchmark of a Unity Government capable of governing Iraq. The Iraqi Army is well on its way to be the fighting and unifying force necessary to take on the Insurgency with continued logistical support for some time to come. As U.S. casualties drop to the lowest levels in months, the interlocking puzzle pieces of success in Iraq are coming into focus, although sometimes it takes a file to the to make the pieces fit. While Shiite politicians deride US interference, Iraqi leaders surely must understand the disorder in Iraq affects political life in Washington as well.

Trolling for Mullahs at Turtle Bay

2006-03-29T13:06:00.000-08:00

Lost in the turmoil over the failed Dubai Port Sale and recent Immigration debate, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has taken possession of the Iranian Nuclear Dossier from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This event marks the beginning of diplomatic steps of great importance to every citizen living in the Industrialized World.

President Bush said recently the Iranian Nuclear program is of "Grave National Importance." He is quite correct.

One scenario has Iran with a crude nuclear device controlling the Straits of Hormuz with a “Line of Death” delivered by patrol boat or tramp steamer thereby at threat to force the United States out of the Persian Gulf. A country controlling the Strait can control the price of oil. Pushing the US out of the Gulf where the US Navy, NATO and Coalition partners enforce Freedom of the Seas is a catastrophic scenario for the industrialized world.

Iranian intent is shown by The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) with comments made Bahrain by Iran’s fiery President and repeated from Oman during the same trip through the region in late January:

"President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad here Sunday stressed the importance of bolstering cooperation among regional states in order to expand security in view of the enemies' efforts to sow discord among countries of the region."

The enemy Mr. Ahmadinejad speaks of is not al-Qaeda. The enemy of Iran is the U.S., NATO and Coalition Allies. Iran talks tough concerning Israel, yet history tells of Iranian armaments deals with Israel replenishing Iran’s Army and Air Force during the long conflict with Iraq. A nuclear device mated to a missile capable of hitting Israel is estimated to come on line long after the crude initial device is born. The ruling Mullah’s consistent desire in lower OPEC oil quotas to raise prices also goes to motive.

Where Iran has gone to guns is the Persian Gulf when the U.S. reflagged Kuwaiti Tankers in a Freedom of the Seas operation. According to the Los Angeles Times, David Albright, former nuclear weapons inspector of the Institute for Science and International Security, states in a newly released paper by his organization that under near perfect conditions Iran can manufacture enough highly enriched uranium to fashion a crude atomic device within three years.

Fortunately, we have allies during this most important phase of discussions at the UNSC: Britain, Germany and France. Germany and France you say? Yes, and here's two quotes from leaders in each country from February:

``Looking back to German history in the early 1930s when National Socialism (Nazism) was on the rise, there were many outside Germany who said 'It's only rhetoric -- don't get excited.' There were times when people could have reacted differently and, in my view, Germany is obliged to do something at the early stages ... We want to, we must prevent Iran from developing its nuclear program." --German Chancellor Merkel

"Today, it's simple ; no civilian nuclear program can explain the Iranian nuclear program. So, it's an Iranian clandestine military nuclear program. It's simple; the international community first sent a very firm message, telling the Iranians: 'Come back to reason, suspend all nuclear activity and uranium enrichment, and uranium conversion' and they don't listen to us" --French Foreign Minister Douste-Blazy

Mais oui, two old friends are back in the tent. When the French say a diplomatic issue is "simple," they have made up their minds.

Russia and China hold fast against any sanctions on Iran, but China can be brought to reason the old fashion way through economics. Senators Graham and Schumer sponsor a 27.5 percent tariff bill tied to changes in the float of China’s yuan in the U. S. Senate that garnered sixty-seven votes in a non-binding tally, while the Bush administration pushes trade mark and patent enforcement. Before the Six Way Talks on North Korea’s nuclear program resumed last July, the administration enacted restrictions on a wide array of Chinese clothing

With President Hu Jintao coming for the Bush version of a state visit, there is still time to turn China diplomatically before a trade war begins. With China turned, Russia will have little choice but to join the West in placing sanctions on Iran. The bottom line is Iran has a muted but far more immediate and stated aim. Remove the enemy—the US and Allies—out of the Persian Gulf. Such a “Line of Death” backed by a nuclear device was the dream of Muammar Gaddafi. Hopefully, diplomatic efforts can snuff this dream before military action or this nightmare sequence.

Bill Clinton: Hillary's Man of the World

2006-03-29T00:59:00.000-08:00

With the UAE and DP World debacle behind him, Bill Clinton finds his services still in demand on the world market...

A phone rings high up in a Tower in Harlem.

Guardian Council Aide: I am calling on behalf of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution.

Secretary: What can I do for you, sir?

Guardian Council Aide: The Supreme Leader wishes to speak with President Clinton.

Secretary: May I inquire to the nature of your call?

Guardian Council Aide: The Supreme Leader's business is not for your ears. It is enough that the Supreme Leader wishes to speak with President Clinton. Put him on the line.

Secretary: Please hold the line.

A couple of minutes pass as the principles get on line.

Bill Clinton: Ayatollah Khamanie, what an honor and a pleasure. What can I do for you?

Supreme Leader: Please address me as Supreme Leader, and I will kept this short. Our diplomatic efforts vis-a-vis almost everyone to save our Enrichment Program are failing.

Bill Clinton: Well, y'all know how to walk the walk, but y'all don't know how to talk the talk. That's an old saying in Arkansas, Supreme Leader. Also, my Secretary did not ttake a liking to the brusque manner of your aide.

Supreme Leader: Yes, that is exactly why I've called upon you. First, you are everybody's favorite American at the UN. Second we could use some advise on how best to keep our program, Mr. President. As for your underling, do not bother me with such trivalities again.

Bill Clinton: Don't know Supreme Leader. Working with you can be detrimental to many projects my wife and I have in motion at the moment.

Supreme Leader: We watched the Dubai Ports Deal, Mr. President. The same can apply where you go one way and Senator Clinton the other, although her support in our efforts to find a peaceful resolution to this Security Council blasphemy would be most welcome.

Bill Clinton: Direct help is out of the question, Supreme Leader, but I could make a speech in Tehran about bridging the gap, and speak with a few of your folks on the sly, if you know what I mean.

Supreme Leader: Mr. President we know help of this nature does not come cheaply and we pay top dollar for advice from someone of your stature.

Bill Clinton: Supreme Leader, I'm going throw a number in the air for this making a speech in Tehran. $10,000,000.00 in a numbered account in Zurich.

Supreme Leader: Mr. President, that will be fine as our needs are great. You do have us over something of a barrel.
Bill Clinton: Supreme Leader, your the man with many barrels of oil that is. Let's let our aides work out the details. One thing. No romance with finance. That means money in the bank before I leave.

Supreme Leader: Good, good, Mr. President. I look forward to your ground breaking trip to Tehran and meeting you in person. Good bye,

Bill Clinton: We'll do what we can to shape up your situation. Good bye.

The Supreme Leader (looking over to his aide): I can't stand talking to an unHoly Son of the Great Satan, but we got him cheap. I was prepared to go $20,000,000.00 Treat him with respect and admiration someone of his station requires, but remember he is only a hired hand and tool to further the Islamic Revolution.

Aide: Yes, Sir, Supreme Leader!